CONFIDENTIAL + PROPRIETARY 1
The State of
Technology & Culture:
Anticipated Release: Q3 2026
Energy
CONFIDENTIAL + PROPRIETARY 2 CONFIDENTIAL + PROPRIETARY 2
JANTA POWER
TABLE OF CONTENTS
03 Introduction
04 01. The Evolution of the U.S. Energy System
30 04. Where Opportunities Exist
14 02. Why Now: Electricity Demand is Accelerating
21 03. Energy Transition Constraints
• Energy Abundance and Economic Growth
• From Combustion to Electrification
• How the U.S. Energy Mix Has Shifted
• Critical Minerals, Recycling
and Domestic Supply Chains
• Firm, Dispatchable and Distributed Power
• Grid Infrastructure, Storage
and Energy Orchestration
• Data Center Power, Intelligence
and Infrastructure Resilience
• Automation, Robotics and
Infrastructure Picks-and-Shovels
• Sustainable Industrial
Transportation at Diesel Parity
• AI & Data Centers
• Falling Cost Curves
• Efficiency & Useful Energy
• Resource Nationalism and
the Geopolitics of Mining and Refining
• Grid Congestion and
the Interconnection Backlog
• Permitting, NIMBYism and
the Politics of the Buildout
• Transportation
• U.S. Industrial Reshoring & Manufacturing
• Climate & Policy Pressure
• Storage Duration and
the Complexity of Renewable Dispatch
• Labor Shortages
37 05. Conclusion
CONFIDENTIAL + PROPRIETARY 3
INTRODUCTION
Energy Defines What’s Possible
MaC Venture Capital (MaC VC) is a seed-stage firm that invests
in emerging sectors and the cultural and technological shifts
shaping the future: how behavior changes, how regulation
follows, and what technology makes possible.
Periodically, we publish Culture Shifts, a list of the trends
we see moving global popular culture. Each one marks an
area where we believe the biggest opportunities for growth,
innovation, and investment will emerge in the years ahead.
In our latest installment of the State of Technology and Culture
Report, we explore the energy sector where we have invested
$35.3M in 12 companies. Our interest is driven by the belief that
the next generation of economic and technological progress
will depend on whether the physical energy system can support
it. Energy has always shaped the boundaries of what society
can build.
Since humans first mastered fire, every major leap in civilization
has followed a new way to harness, convert, or distribute
power. Wood and biomass supported early settlement and
small-scale industry. Coal powered factories, steel production,
railroads, and industrial cities. Oil unlocked mass mobility,
aviation, global logistics, and petrochemicals.
Electricity became the foundation of modern homes, healthcare
systems, communications networks, manufacturing facilities,
and digital infrastructure. In the United States, each expansion
of the energy system increased the amount of power available
and also the range of economic and technological possibilities
available to society.
This report examines the forces reshaping the energy
system, the constraints that may slow its development, and
the opportunities emerging for founders and investors. The
energy transition is often discussed primarily as a shift toward
cleaner sources of generation. While decarbonization remains
important, the transition is also increasingly being driven by a
broader economic imperative to deliver electricity through a
system that is more reliable, flexible, affordable, and capable of
supporting the next era of industrial and technological growth.
Energy has always shaped the boundaries of what society can build.
$35.3M
across 12 energy
companies in the
energy sector
MaC VC has
invested
3
BLOCPOWER
CONFIDENTIAL + PROPRIETARY 4 CONFIDENTIAL + PROPRIETARY 4
SECTION 1
America’s energy system has been repeatedly
reshaped by new technologies, sources
of supply, and patterns of demand. From
combustion and electrification to the rise of oil,
gas, nuclear, and renewables, each transition
expanded what the economy could support.
Understanding that evolution helps explain the
system we have today—and the forces shaping
what comes next.
The Evolution
of the U.S.
Energy System
01.1
01.2
01.3
Energy Abundance and
Economic Growth
From Combustion to Electrification
How the U.S. Energy Mix Has Shifted
CONFIDENTIAL + PROPRIETARY 5
01.1 THE EVOLUTION OF THE U.S. ENERGY SYSTEM
Energy Abundance
and Economic Growth
Reliable and affordable electricity is one of the core inputs
that makes prosperity possible. U.S. electricity consumption
has grown roughly 14x since 1950 to 2025 (source), and
commercial and industrial users accounted for more than 62%
of U.S. retail electricity sales in 2025 (source), underscoring
electricity’s role as a foundational input for economic activity.
This pattern is also evident in the connection between
electricity use and economic output. There is effectively no
such thing as a low-energy, high-income country.
The relationship between energy availability
and economic development remains visible
across the modern global economy.
14x
62%
+
U.S. electricity
consumption has
grown roughly 14x
since 1950 to 2025.
Source: EIA, 2026
Commercial and
industrial users
accounted for more
than 62% of U.S. retail
electricty sales in
2025.
Source: EIA, 2026
5
CONFIDENTIAL + PROPRIETARY 6
01.1 THE EVOLUTION OF THE U.S. ENERGY SYSTEM
Wealthy economies, including the United States, sit in the
upper-right portion of the chart to the right, combining high
levels of per-capita electricity generation with high levels of
income. The poorest economies remain concentrated in the
lower-left, where both electricity availability and income are
limited.
High-income countries generate
approximately 44x more electricity per
person than low-income countries, while
their GDP per capita is roughly 26x higher.
The data suggests that energy consumption reinforces
that sustained economic development requires access to
substantial amounts of dependable power.
CONFIDENTIAL + PROPRIETARY 7
01.2 THE EVOLUTION OF THE U.S. ENERGY SYSTEM
From Combustion to Electrification
For much of human history, useful energy came
directly from combustion. People burned wood,
coal, oil, and gas to create heat, motion, and
mechanical power.
By the late nineteenth century (source), however,
primary energy sources such as coal, petroleum,
and natural gas increasingly began to be
converted into electricity.
Over the following centuries, electricity became
a common input across homes, manufacturing,
transportation, communications, and
eventually computing.
Thomas Edison’s Pearl Street Station was an
early proof point for this model.
In 1882, it became the first commercial central
power station and began supplying customers in
Manhattan, proving that centralized generation
and distribution could work commercially (source).
But the early system was limited by direct current,
which could only travel short distances.
The adoption of alternating current, championed
by George Westinghouse and Nikola Tesla,
changed the economics of power distribution
because electricity could be transmitted over
longer distances (source). That breakthrough
allowed power plants to serve entire regions
rather than individual neighborhoods.
While energy has always powered economic progress, the way that energy
is generated and consumed has evolved considerably.
That
breakthrough
changed the
economics
of power
distribution
7
CONFIDENTIAL + PROPRIETARY 8
01.2 THE EVOLUTION OF THE U.S. ENERGY SYSTEM
By the early twentieth century, electricity had moved
from a technical experiment to a commercially
operating infrastructure system.
By 1930, roughly seven in ten American
homes were wired for electricity, and
nearly nine in ten urban and nonfarm
rural homes had access. (source)
The Rural Electrification Administration, established in
1935 and made permanent by the Rural Electrification
Act of 1936, helped close that gap for rural homes
(source). With these advancements, the U.S. grid had
become one of the country’s most important pieces of
economic infrastructure.
8
1936
Rural Electrification
Act made the REA
permanent
1935
Rural Electrification
Administration
established
~
90%
urban and nonfarm
rural homes had
access
~
70%
American homes
were wired for
electricity
CONFIDENTIAL + PROPRIETARY 9
01.3 THE EVOLUTION OF THE U.S. ENERGY SYSTEM
How the U.S. Energy
Mix Has Shifted
The United States is the world’s largest producer of both crude oil
and natural gas, and fossil fuels still accounted for approximately
82% of U.S. primary energy consumption in 2025 (source).
Natural gas has been the country’s largest source of domestic
energy production since 2011, while petroleum remains the
most-consumed energy source and is deeply embedded across
transportation, industry, and the broader economy.
Reports commissioned by the American Petroleum Institute
have estimated that the U.S. oil and natural gas industry supports
approximately 8% of U.S. GDP, as of their latest report published
in 2021 (source).
The U.S. energy system remains heavily anchored
in fossil fuels, even as the sources of growth
within the energy mix have begun to change.
U.S. PRIMARY ENERGY PRODUCTION BY SOURCE
(Quadrillion British Thermal Units)
Note: The chart represents energy production across multiple sources, including the extraction of fossil fuels and the generation of
electricity from renewable and nuclear sources. Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, March 2026
#
1
Petroleum remains the
most-consumed source of
energy in the U.S.
#
1
Natural gas has been the
largest source of U.S. energy
production since 2011
82%
of U.S. primary energy
consumption were fossil
fuels in 2025
CONFIDENTIAL + PROPRIETARY 10
01.3 THE EVOLUTION OF THE U.S. ENERGY SYSTEM
Beginning around 1950, oil separated sharply from coal as the
country’s dominant energy source, driven by rising automobile
ownership, commercial aviation, freight transportation, suburban
development, and petrochemical manufacturing.
U.S. oil production later peaked in the early 1970s before entering
a prolonged decline, and the oil crises of that decade exposed
the country’s reliance on foreign producers while strengthening
incentives for domestic production, fuel efficiency, nuclear
development, and alternative sources of energy.
The current mix is the product of several major
shifts over the past 75 years.
U.S. PRIMARY ENERGY CONSUMPTION BY SOURCE
(Quadrillion British Thermal Units)
~1950
OIL OVERTAKES COAL
America’s dominant energy
source shifts as automobiles,
aviation and freight
reshape demand.
EARLY 1970s
U.S. OIL PRODUCTION
PEAKS
Domestic production enters
a prolonged decline.
1970s
ENERGY SECURITY
BECOMES STRATEGIC
Oil shocks expose reliance
on foreign producers —
accelerating efficiency, nuclear
and alternative energy.
CONFIDENTIAL + PROPRIETARY 11 11
01.3 THE EVOLUTION OF THE U.S. ENERGY SYSTEM
The next major inflection came with the
expansion of nuclear power during the 1970s
and 1980s, as utilities built large reactors to
meet rising electricity demand and reduce
dependence on fossil fuels.
That buildout slowed considerably during the 1990s as
construction costs increased, project timelines lengthened,
electricity markets changed, and regulatory and political
barriers became more pronounced.
Nuclear has remained an important source of reliable, low-
carbon electricity, but the United States has added relatively
little new nuclear capacity over the past several decades.
Utilities built large reactors to meet
rising electricity demand and reduce
dependence on fossil fuels.
CONFIDENTIAL + PROPRIETARY 12
01.3 THE EVOLUTION OF THE U.S. ENERGY SYSTEM
Beginning in the mid-2000s, the
shale revolution reshaped the
mix again.
Advances in horizontal drilling and hydraulic
fracturing dramatically increased domestic
oil and natural gas production and lowered
the cost of gas.
Natural gas plants also became increasingly
attractive to utilities because they could be
built more quickly, operate more flexibly, and
emit less carbon dioxide and conventional
air pollution than coal plants. As a result,
natural gas displaced a significant share of
coal within the U.S. electricity system.
More recently, the growth story has shifted
toward renewables. From 2015 to 2025, U.S.
renewable energy consumption increased
by nearly 29%, while fossil-fuel consumption
remained essentially flat, rising approximately
0.15% over the same period (source).
Falling equipment costs, improving
technology, tax incentives, state procurement
requirements, and corporate demand
have accelerated the deployment of wind
and solar even as fossil fuels continue to
dominate the overall system.
12
From 2015 to 2025, U.S. renewable
energy consumption increased by
nearly 29%
Fossil-fuel consumption remained
essentially flat over the same period
29%
0.15%
CONFIDENTIAL + PROPRIETARY 13
01.3 THE EVOLUTION OF THE U.S. ENERGY SYSTEM
This shift matters because most renewable energy generation
enters the economy as electric power.
As transportation, heating, manufacturing, and computing
become more electrified, the grid is becoming the common
platform through which a growing share of economic activity
is happening.
Electrification allows these systems to draw from a more
diverse and lower-emissions mix of generation sources rather
than remaining tied to direct fossil-fuel combustion. At the
same time, decades of infrastructure investment, established
supply chains, and long-lived assets have created an
enormous physical base around fossil fuels.
As a result, the energy transition will
depend on expanding and upgrading the
infrastructure required to move, store, and
reliably deliver electricity across a much more
electrified economy.
13
POWERING
INDUSTRY
Electrification of
Everything
BUILDING THE
FUTURE
Smart Buildings
and Cities
ENABLING
DIGITAL GROWTH
Data Centers
and AI
STRENGTHENING
THE GRID
Resilience, Flexibility
and Security
TRANSFORMING
MOBILITY
EVs Drive New
Demand
CONFIDENTIAL + PROPRIETARY 14 CONFIDENTIAL + PROPRIETARY 14
SECTION 2
While these renewable sources are not yet dominant
from a generation and consumption standpoint
today, their growth reflects a broader transformation
of the energy system.
The economy is moving toward electricity at the
same time that electricity demand itself is beginning
to accelerate. Six forces are pushing more economic
activity onto the grid.
Why Now:
Electricity Demand
Is Accelerating
02.1
02.2
02.3
02.4
02.5
02.6
AI & Data Centers
Falling Cost Curves
Efficiency & Useful Energy
Transportation
U.S. Industrial Reshoring &
Manufacturing
Climate & Policy Pressure
CONFIDENTIAL + PROPRIETARY 15
~480
TWh
176
TWh
02.1 WHY NOW: ELECTRICITY DEMAND IS ACCELERATING
AI & Data Centers
U.S. data centers consumed roughly 176 TWh of
electricity in 2023, or 4.4% of total U.S. electricity use,
and Berkeley Lab now estimates they could account for
up to 12% of U.S. electricity consumption by 2028 as AI
workloads scale. (source)
AI is turning electricity into a direct input
for digital production.
For the first time, a major new source of
electricity demand is being driven by computation itself.
U.S. DATA CENTER ELECTRICITY CONSUMPTION
TWh (Terawatt-hours) and % of total U.S. electricity use
of total U.S.
electricity use
of total U.S.
electricity use
(estimated)
2023 2028
4.4% 13%
increase
by 2028
~2.7x
CONFIDENTIAL + PROPRIETARY 16
02.2 WHY NOW: ELECTRICITY DEMAND IS ACCELERATING
Falling Cost Curves
In 2024, 91% of newly commissioned utility-scale
renewable capacity produced electricity at a lower cost
than the cheapest new fossil-fuel alternative, while
battery storage costs had fallen 93% since 2010.
As the cost of generating and storing electricity
declines, electrifying end uses becomes increasingly
economical on its own merits. (source)
Solar, wind, batteries, and power
electronics have become dramatically
more cost competitive.
16
of newly commissioned
utility-scale renewable
capacity produced
electricity at a lower
cost since 2024
Since 2010
battery storage
costs had fallen
91%
93%
CONFIDENTIAL + PROPRIETARY 17
02.3 WHY NOW: ELECTRICITY DEMAND IS ACCELERATING
Efficiency &
Useful Energy
A typical EV converts roughly 87%–91% of the energy
stored in its battery into useful vehicle movement,
compared with about 30% for a gasoline vehicle; similarly,
an air-source heat pump can deliver up to three times
more heat energy than the electricity it consumes.
Electric technologies often convert energy
into useful output more efficiently than
combustion-based alternatives.
Electrification can therefore reduce the total
amount of energy required to perform the same work.
USEFUL ENERGY DELIVERED
Electric technologies deliver more useful output per unit of energy.
87–91%
ELECTRIC VEHICLE vs.
GASOLINE VEHICLE
of battery energy
in a typical EV is
converted into useful
vehicle movement
Electric Vehicle
87–91%
Gasoline Vehicle
30%
~3x
AIR-SOURCE HEAT PUMP vs.
ELECTRIC RESISTANCE HEATING
more heat energy
delivered thsn the
electricity it consumes
1x
Electricity In
~3x
Heat Out
CONFIDENTIAL + PROPRIETARY 18
02.4 WHY NOW: ELECTRICITY DEMAND IS ACCELERATING
Transportation
Electricity consumed by U.S. light-duty EVs increased
from roughly 1.6 TWh in 2018 to 23.5 TWh in 2025, nearly
a 15-fold increase in seven years. As more cars, trucks,
and commercial fleets electrify, energy demand that
historically flowed through refineries and gas stations
is increasingly being redirected toward the grid and
charging infrastructure. (source)
EV adoption is shifting transportation
demand from liquid fuels to electricity.
the increase in electricity
consumed by U.S. light-duty EVs
2018 2025 15x
18
CONFIDENTIAL + PROPRIETARY 19
02.5 WHY NOW: ELECTRICITY DEMAND IS ACCELERATING
U.S. Industrial
Reshoring &
Manufacturing
U.S. manufacturing construction spending rose by more
than 50% in 2022, another 62% in 2023, and 16% in 2024,
driven in part by semiconductor fabs, battery plants, and
other advanced manufacturing projects. These facilities
require significant amounts of reliable, affordable power,
making regional electricity availability an increasingly
important factor in where companies locate and expand.
(source)
New factories and advanced manufacturing
facilities are creating large, concentrated
sources of electricity demand.
MANUFACTURING CONSTRUCTION SPENDING IS SURGING
Year-over-year increase in U.S. manufacturing construction spending
+50% +62% +16%
2022 2023 2024
Surge driven by
reshoring momentum
and the first wave
of advanced
manufacturing projects.
Semiconductor fabs,
battery plants, and other
mega-projects pushed
construction spending
even higher.
Growth continued
as more announced
facilities moved into
active build-out.
New factories don’t just need land
and labor—they need reliable power.
CONFIDENTIAL + PROPRIETARY 20
02.6 WHY NOW: ELECTRICITY DEMAND IS ACCELERATING
Climate & Policy
Pressure
As of December 2025, 28 states and Washington,
D.C. had renewable portfolio standards, while 23
states and D.C. had a requirement or goal to reach
100% renewable or clean electricity by 2050 or
earlier. These mandates and incentives are helping
push utilities, companies, and consumers toward
electric and lower-carbon alternatives. (source)
Policy continues to reinforce the
shift toward cleaner and increasingly
electric energy systems, particularly at
the state level.
states and D.C. had
renewable portfolio
standards as of 2025
states and D.C. had a
requirement or goal to
reach 100% renewable or
clean electricity by 2050
28
23
20
CONFIDENTIAL + PROPRIETARY 21
02.6 WHY NOW: ELECTRICITY DEMAND IS ACCELERATING
The Next Constraint
Is Physical
The next phase of the transition depends on whether
the physical system underneath it can keep pace,
and there are real challenges that determine how
quickly that happens.
Electrification is pulling more of the
economy onto the grid, but scaling that
shift is not automatic.
21
CONFIDENTIAL + PROPRIETARY 22
Energy Transition
Constraints
The transition faces the following six structural
bottlenecks, each operating at a different
layer of the energy stack:
03.1
03.2
03.3
03.4
03.5
Resource Nationalism &
the Geopolitics of Mining and Refining
Grid Congestion &
the Interconnection Backlog
Permitting, NIMBYism &
the Politics of the Buildout
Storage Duration &
the Complexity of Renewable Dispatch
Labor Shortage
With this transition underway, there are implications
and challenges with who captures the upside,
how fast it moves, and what stands in the way.
The history of energy systems matters because it
shows a consistent pattern: when energy becomes
cheaper, more reliable, or easier to distribute, it
expands what a country can build. Every major
energy transition has ultimately been shaped
by whether infrastructure could keep pace with
demand. Demand is rising at a moment when the
system was built for a very different era. And unlike
past transitions, where solving one major bottleneck
helped unlock the next phase of growth, today’s
constraints are more interconnected.
CONFIDENTIAL + PROPRIETARY 22
SECTION 3
CONFIDENTIAL + PROPRIETARY 23
03.1 ENERGY TRANSITION CONSTRAINTS
Resource Nationalism & the
Geopolitics of Mining and Refining
The physical materials that will enable this shift rely on minerals. Batteries depend on
lithium, graphite, nickel, cobalt, and manganese. Wind turbines and EV motors rely on
rare earth elements. The grid itself requires large volumes of copper and aluminum
(source). As electricity demand rises, the constraint is whether the U.S. can secure,
refine, and control the physical inputs required to build the system.
The core problem is that mineral supply chains are highly concentrated, especially
after extraction. Mining is the process of pulling raw materials out of the ground;
refining is what turns those materials into usable industrial inputs, such as battery-
grade lithium, processed graphite, separated rare earths, and magnet materials. The
U.S. may have access to some reserves and domestic production, but China’s more
durable advantage sits in the midstream: separating, refining, and manufacturing
critical minerals into usable components.
The DOE’s 2023 Critical Materials Assessment makes this exposure clear. The report
ranks materials by their importance to energy technologies and their supply risk
through 2035, with certain rare earth elements that are essential to the permanent
magnets that power electric vehicle motors, wind turbines, advanced electronics,
and defense systems being among the highest-risk inputs to the U.S. In 2024, global
rare earth reserves totaled more than 90 million tonnes, with China holding roughly
44–45 million tonnes and the U.S. holding about 1.9 million tonnes. While the U.S.
produced roughly 45,000 tonnes last year (source), USGS data shows the U.S.
remains 100% net import reliant for several nonfuel mineral commodities, with China
still the leading supplier across many of them (source).
The Results of the 2023 DOE
Critical Materials Assessmentenergy stack:
Medium Term: 2020-2025
CONFIDENTIAL + PROPRIETARY 24
03.2 ENERGY TRANSITION CONSTRAINTS
Grid Congestion &
the Interconnection Backlog
Much of the U.S. transmission network was built for a different
electricity system: large centralized power plants, steadier demand
growth, and more predictable flows of power. That architecture is now
under strain as the grid absorbs more industrial demand. The problem
is that the U.S. needs more electricity and its system cannot move
power from where it is generated to where it is needed fast enough.
At a basic level, power is produced by generators, moved across
high-voltage transmission lines, delivered through local utilities
and distribution networks, and ultimately consumed by homes and
businesses. In organized markets, RTOs and ISOs sit in the middle of
that system, coordinating transmission and wholesale power markets
so supply can meet demand in real time.
Grid congestion is the power system’s version of a traffic jam. When
transmission lines are constrained, low-cost power can get trapped
in one region, customers on the other side may have to rely on more
expensive local generation, and operators have less flexibility during
periods of stress. In the Southwest Power Pool, for example, wind can
regularly meet more than 75% of electricity demand across the 14-state
region, but limited transmission can leave that power bottled up by
congestion (source). This is happening on top of aging infrastructure:
70% of U.S. transmission lines are more than 25 years old, large power
transformers average more than 40 years old, and outages have more
than doubled versus the prior six-year period (source).
How Power Reaches End Customers:
From generation to the grid to homes and businesses
Electricity physically flows from generation to customers; market
and coordination layers help route and manage that system.
Power
Generation
Power
Generation
RTO / ISO Market
Operator
Coordinates
transmission and
wholesale markets
Transmission &
Distribution
Network
Moves power
across the grid
Local Utility /
Retail Provider
Delivers
service to
customers
Home /
Business
Consumes
electricity
1 2 3 4 5
Because power moves through multiple layers of operators, networks,
and utilities, grid modernization and new transmission projects often
require coordination across many stakeholders
CONFIDENTIAL + PROPRIETARY 25
03.2 ENERGY TRANSITION CONSTRAINTS
Grid Congestion &
the Interconnection Backlog (cont.)
The map below shows why this is hard to solve centrally. The U.S. grid is not managed by one unified
operator. FERC oversees interstate transmission and wholesale power markets, but regional grid
operators, utilities, state regulators, and local authorities all shape how power moves and how new
infrastructure gets approved.
This regional structure matters because new transmission often has to move through overlapping
federal, state, utility, and regional approval processes. Interconnection is where that bottleneck
becomes most visible. Before a new power project can connect to the grid, it must go through
technical studies that determine whether the system can absorb the project safely, what upgrades
are needed, who pays for them, and whether the project creates reliability or cost issues elsewhere.
Those studies can take years and cost millions of dollars. Berkeley Lab estimates that nearly 2,600 GW
of energy and storage capacity is waiting in U.S. interconnection queues, almost twice the size of the
current U.S. grid (source).
The scale of required upgrades is enormous. Marsh McLennan, the world’s leading insurance
broker and risk advisory firm, estimates that more than 140,000 miles of U.S. transmission lines may
need to be replaced by 2050, with fixes and upgrades costing more than $1 trillion (source). The
federal government is beginning to respond. DOE’s roughly $1.9 billion SPARK program, announced
March 2026, focuses on reconductoring, advanced transmission technologies, and cross-regional
coordination (source), while FERC issued show-cause orders, as of July 2026, to the six RTOs and
ISOs aimed at accelerating how large loads like data centers connect to the grid (source). The orders
push for clearer transmission service rules, co-location and behind-the-meter protocols, faster studies
for generation located near load, grid-enhancing technologies like dynamic line ratings, stronger cost
recovery from large loads, financial security to discourage speculative projects, and improved load
forecasting. The move is meaningful, but it reinforces that there is a coordination problem across areas
such as permitting, cost allocation, utility planning, regional market rules, and infrastructure.
Major U.S. RTOs & ISOs:
All RTOs are ISOs, but RTOs meet stricter federal requirements
for size, scope, and governance. source
RTO
Regional Transmission
Organization
Manages transmission and
wholesale electricity markets
across large multi-state regions.
ISO
Independent
System Operator
Performs a similar role, often
across smaller regional or
single-state markets.
Non-ISO /
Non-RTO Areas
These areas rely on vertically
integrated utilities and
balancing authorities, with
utility-led dispatch and
bilateral power transactions
rather than organized
wholesale markets.
CONFIDENTIAL + PROPRIETARY 26
03.3 ENERGY TRANSITION CONSTRAINTS
Permitting, NIMBYism
& the Politics of Buildout
Permitting, land use, and local opposition are another
major constraint on the energy transition. New generation,
transmission, storage, and industrial facilities all need
approvals across federal, state, and local jurisdictions. These
projects also navigate community concerns around land,
noise, property values, agricultural use, and environmental
impact.
A Berkeley Lab survey of large-scale wind and solar
developers found that roughly one-third of siting
applications submitted in the last five years were canceled,
while about half experienced delays of six months or more
(source). Local ordinances and zoning, grid interconnection,
and community opposition were among the top causes of
both cancellations and delays.
So even when projects are economically viable, they can still
be slowed or stopped by permitting timelines, community
resistance, and fragmented approval processes. As
opposition becomes more prevalent and more expensive to
address, the speed of the energy transition will increasingly
depend on how well projects navigate the communities and
jurisdictions where they are built.
The cost is also material:
$200,000 per MW
Cost to developers from
project delays
source
$2M+
Average sunk cost of
canceled solar projects
$7.5M
Average sunk cost of
canceled wind projects